3%+ Copycat Portfolio Performance from 2014 to 2023

Contents

• Research Methodology: How the 3%+ Copycat Portfolio Was Built
• Portfolio Performance: Returns and Stock Count
• Batting Average: How Often the Copycat Portfolio Beat the Market
• Average Gains, Losses & Positive-Negative Asymmetry: How Gains and Losses Compare
• Building Your Own Copycat Portfolio: Step-by-Step Guide
• Summary of Findings: What the Data Reveals About Copying Super Investors 3%+ Positions
  

Research Methodology: How the 3%+ Copycat Portfolio Was Built
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Objective

The goal of this research is to identify and copy the stock investments of top-performing super value investors. Using clear and measurable criteria, we aim to create a system that everyday investors like you can follow to achieve similar investing performance.
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Key Steps

1. Analyze Portfolios: Study the holdings of successful value investors.

2. Apply Filters: Use strict criteria to select the best-performing investors.

3. Build Portfolios: Build equally weighted portfolios based on their holdings.

4. Set Rules: Define clear buying and selling strategies to guide decision-making.

What Are Equally Weighted Portfolios?

An equally weighted portfolio means every stock in the portfolio is given the same importance. Instead of putting more money into one stock and less into another, the same amount is invested in each stock.

For example, if you have 10 stocks, each one will make up 10% of the total portfolio. This approach ensures that no single stock has too much influence on the overall performance.

Investor Selection Criteria: Common Filters Across All Investors

To ensure consistency and reliability, we applied the following filters to select the investors included in the study:

1. Strong Investment Performance – Positions making up 3% or more of their portfolio have annual returns exceeding 12%.

2. Proven Track Record – Each investor has been actively investing in public equities since before 2014.

Performance Cohorts
We focused our analysis on portfolios made entirely of positions that are 3% or larger in super investor portfolios.

We analyzed the performance based on the average portfolio size for portfolios made up of super investor positions that were 3% or larger.

These portfolios are divided into four cohorts based on their average size:

- A portfolio that includes all the copycat stocks.

- A portfolio with an average of 19 copycat stocks.

- A portfolio with an average of 17 copycat stocks.

​- A portfolio with an average of 13 copycat stocks.

Portfolio Construction

Equally Weighted Portfolios
The portfolio average is a combination of the average annual returns for stocks held longer than a year, and the average appreciation or depreciation for those held for less than a year.

For stocks held for more than one year, the average is calculated using their annual returns.

For stocks held for less than one year, the average is based on their total appreciation or depreciation during the holding period, rather than an annual return
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Why Is Average Appreciation or Depreciation Used for Stocks Held for Less Than a Year?

For stocks held for less than one year (less than 1 quarter, 1 quarter, 2 quarters, or 3 quarters) using their average appreciation or depreciation is more accurate because these stocks haven't been held long enough to calculate a full year's return. Annualizing the return could give a misleading result, as it assumes the short-term performance will continue consistently over an entire year. By using the actual change in value during the time the stock was held, we ensure the analysis reflects the real performance of these shorter-term positions.

Buying & Selling Rules

Buying Rules
Buy a stock when the investor makes a first-time buy of 3% or more of their portfolio.

Selling Rules
Sell a stock when the investor reduces their position by 80%–100% in one transaction.

Why focus on first-time buys?

First-time buys are the clearest sign of an investor’s confidence in a stock. When super investors make a big initial buy, it shows their confidence in the investment. By focusing on first-time buys, we avoid the guesswork involved in copying investments where investors gradually build their position over time. Smaller, repeated buys of the same stock could indicate uncertainty or simple portfolio adjustments, rather than strong conviction in the investment.

For example, let’s say a super investor decides to buy a position in Apple. A first-time buy would mean they buy 10% of their portfolio in Apple all at once in a single quarter, showing high confidence in the stock. On the other hand, a gradual build-up might look like the investor buying 2% of their portfolio in Apple in Q1, 3% in Q2, and 5% in Q3, reaching 10% over three quarters. This gradual approach suggests the investor is more cautious, slowly increasing their stake as they gain more confidence in the stock.
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Why sell after a large reduction?

A big sell-off, especially 80% to 100% of a position, is a strong signal that the investor thinks it’s the right time to sell or has found better opportunities. This type of sale shows they believe it’s time to move on. On the other hand, if an investor sells smaller amounts over time, it may just be for portfolio balancing or taking profits, not because they lack confidence in the stock.

For example, let’s say a super investor has a position in Apple. A big sell-off means they might sell 80% to 100% of their position all at once.

This suggests they believe it’s time to move on or find something better. In contrast, a gradual sell-off might look like selling 30% of their Apple position and continuing to hold the stock for 2 to 3 years, then selling the remaining 70%. For example, they might sell 35% of their Apple stock after 2 years and 35% after 3 years.

This slower, partial sell-off could just be balancing their portfolio or taking profits, not because they’ve lost confidence in the stock. We want to focus on strong selling signals from the investor, like a large, one-time sell-off, rather than smaller, gradual sales.

Simple and Effective Buying and Selling Rules
This method makes it easy for you to copy super investors. By focusing on big first-time buys and clear sell signals, it cuts out confusion and makes decision-making easier. You don’t need to track every small change in a portfolio. We want to buy when investors show strong confidence with a large first-time buy, and we sell when they give a strong sell signal, like cutting their position a lot. This way, we’re making decisions based on clear signs, not guessing.

Portfolio Performance: Returns and Stock Count

Let’s look at how each investor performed on their own, how a combined portfolio made up of all these investors performed, and how both compare to the S&P 500 index.

2014 to 2023 Individual Investor Returns & Stock Count for Portfolio with 3%+ Positions

Removing Overlapping Stocks for Accurate Results

We start by looking at how each investor performed individually. But when we combine all these investors into one portfolio, there’s a challenge: some investors pick the same stocks at the same time.
For example, if Investor A buys Amazon in 2015 and holds it until 2018, and Investor B buys Amazon in 2016 and holds it until 2017, Amazon would be counted twice. To avoid this, we take steps to fix the overlap.

We solve this by only counting the stock pick from the investor who bought it first. If multiple investors buy the same stock at different times and their holding periods overlap, we include the returns from the investor who bought it first. This prevents double-counting, which could make the combined fund’s performance look better than it really is.
Because of this, we’ve created two versions of each investor’s performance:

1. Performance Including Overlapping Stocks – Shows returns without fixing overlaps.

2. Performance Excluding Overlapping Stocks – Shows returns after removing overlaps in the combined portfolio.

In the table, you will see the Performance Excluding Overlapping Stocks. You will find both versions of the individual performance of the investor attached at the end of this report.

The individual investor performance with exclusion of the overlapped stocks all outperformed the S&P 500 Index. The returns for individual investors were between 12.37% and 15.40%. Significantly above the S&P 500’s 11.83% for the same period of time.
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2014 to 2023 Single Portfolio Returns & Stock Count for Portfolio with 3%+ Positions

Small Differences Between Labels and Actual Portfolio Sizes

The portfolio sizes are labeled as 19, 17, and 13 stocks for simplicity, but the actual sizes are 19.38, 16.62, and 13.36 stocks. This small difference happens because the math doesn’t always match reality exactly. As a result, there’s a slight difference between the label and actual portfolio size. These small differences don’t change the overall results or conclusions—they just reflect the way the math works when dividing up stocks into portfolios.

From 2014 to 2023, the copycat portfolios clearly outperformed the S&P 500's average annual return of 11.83%. Every portfolio returned an annual rate of return above 13.67%, with returns ranging from 13.67% to 14.07%. The smaller the portfolio, the better the results.

If you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 in 2014, it would have grown to around $30,590 by 2023. But if you invested in the copycat portfolios, your $10,000 would have grown even more:

- The 19-stock portfolio returned 13.67% per year, growing your $10,000 to about $36,013.

- The 17-stock portfolio returned 13.71% per year, growing your $10,000 to around $36,140.

- The 13-stock portfolio returned 14.07% per year, turning your $10,000 into about $37,300.

- For stock portfolios in our paid Copycat Wealth Plus plans the returns are between 14.39% and 16.34% per year. Meaning your $10,000 would turn in between $38,360 and $45,425. 
50% (2 out of 4) of the portfolios have annual returns above 15.50% per year.

- For stock portfolios in our paid Copycat Wealth Pro plans the returns are between 14.39% and 20.69% per year. Meaning your $10,000 would turn in between $38,360 and $65,571.
78.57% (11 out of 14) of the portfolios have annual returns above 16.00% per year.
42.86% (6 out of 14) of the portfolios have annual returns above 18.50% per year.

- For stock portfolios in our paid Copycat Wealth Max plans the returns are between 14.39%and 29.00% per year. Meaning your $10,000 would turn in between $44,114 and $127,614.
83.33% (25 out of 30) of the portfolios have annual returns above 16.00% per year.
66.66% (20 out of 30) of the portfolios have annual returns above 18.50% per year.

​We also see a strong long-term strategy from the investors, with average holding periods ranging from 2.48 to 2.55 years.

Lastly, as the portfolio size gets smaller, the returns improve. Smaller portfolios allow us to focus on the best-performing investors. With fewer stocks, we can invest in only the top performers, leading to better returns.

Batting Average: How Often the Copycat Portfolio Beat the Market

Let's now take a look at the batting average of each investor individually, the combined portfolio's batting average, and how both compare to the 60% win rate, which is considered the gold standard by the best investors in the world.

Why a 60% Win Rate is the Gold Standard in Investing

For top investors, a 60% win rate is considered excellent, often seen as the benchmark for success in the world of investing.

“In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten.” Peter Lynch

“Even the best investment analyst is going to be right just two out of three times.” Sir John Templeton

“I am a professional mistake maker. One-third of my trades are probably wrong.” Ray Dalio

These world-class investors understand that a 60% win rate is the benchmark for anyone looking to succeed in investing. The stock market is uncertain, and countless variables affect a company's success. Because of this, mistakes are inevitable. However, great investors maintain a strong risk-reward balance that allows their overall returns to outperform, even when they experience losses.

As George Soros says:
"It’s not whether you’re right or wrong; it’s how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong."
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2014 to 2023 Batting Average for Individual Portfolios with 3%+ Positions

The win rates for the individual investors ranged from 71% to 91%, which is above the gold standard of 60%. As we saw earlier in the “Copying Super Value Investors Research Report,” beating the S&P 500 is tough because about 75% of stocks won’t even beat a simple market index like the S&P 500. When you try to pick individual stocks, you’re facing a 75% chance of losing. But by copying top investors, we turn the odds in our favor, with a chance of winning between 71% and 91%.

As Charlie Munger said in his fishing analogy: "The first rule of fishing is 'fish where the fish are,' and the second rule is 'don’t forget rule number one.' In investing, it’s the same thing." By copying super value investors, we’re fishing in a lake full of great investments, instead of one where most investments are losers.
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2014 to 2023 Batting Average for Single Portfolio with 3%+ Positions

From 2014 to 2023, the copycat portfolios clearly surpassed the investing industry’s gold standard of 60% win rate. Every portfolio had a win rate above 75%, with win rates ranging from 75% to 78%. The smaller the portfolio, the better the results.

​As we saw earlier in the “Copying Super Value Investors Research Report,” beating the S&P 500 is tough because about 75% of stocks won’t even beat a simple market index like the S&P 500. When you try to pick individual stocks, you’re facing a 75% chance of losing. But by copying top investors, you turn the odds in your favor, with a chance of winning between 75% and 78%.

Go From 75% Chance Losing to 78% Chance of Winning

Average Gains & Losses and Positive-Negative Asymmetry: How Gains and Losses Compare

In this section, we examine the average gains and losses of individual investors and a combined portfolio. We focus on average gains, average losses, and the Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio

As explained in the “Copying Super Value Investors Research Report,” this ratio compares how much an investor gains on average when they’re right to how much they lose when they’re wrong. A high Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio means the average gains are much larger than the average losses, which is essential for long-term success.

The ideal Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio is at least 3, and even better if it’s 3.5 or higher. This means the gains should be at least three times larger than the losses.

This ratio shows how well investors identify opportunities with big upsides and small downsides. It also highlights their ability to maintain a strong risk-reward balance, allowing their overall returns to outperform even when they face losses.
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2014 to 2023 Individual Investor Average Gains & Losses for Portfolio with 3%+ Positions

2014 to 2023 Individual Investor Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio for Portfolio with 3%+ Positions

We can see that the Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio for individual investors ranged between 2.11 and 15. 75% (3/4) of the individual investors achieved a Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio above 3, meeting or exceeding the ideal threshold. Meanwhile, approximately 25% (1/4) of the investors had a ratio below 3.

A Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio close to 2 is still good, meaning their winning investments were, on average, twice as large as their losing investments. However, the standard is set at 3 to provide a margin of safety when choosing super investors to copy. The ideal is to focus on investors with a ratio of 3 or higher.
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2014 to 2023 Single Portfolio Average Gains & Losses for Portfolio with 3%+ Positions

2014 to 2023 Single Portfolio Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio for Portfolio with 3%+ Positions

When we look at the combined portfolio (all the individual investors’ picks together), we see a Positive-Negative Asymmetry Ratio above 3. This shows excellent performance, with the ratio ranging between 4.67 and 5.92. The combined portfolio shows a strong margin of safety with the chosen super investors.

The combined portfolio is a great example of value investing in action. We see how the portfolio focuses on investments with big upside potential and small downside risk. The result is a portfolio with a strong risk-reward balance and impressive stock-picking skills from these super value investors.
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Building Your Own 3%+ Copycat Portfolio: Step-by-Step Guide

Your Level of Investing Knowledge and Mastery

Your level of investing knowledge, skills, risk tolerance, and financial situation shape how you build your copycat portfolio. If you’re at the beginner level, you might start by investing in the S&P 500 Index, as it’s straightforward and requires minimal expertise. As you gain more experience, you can transition to a more diversified copycat approach, following the investments of top-performing investors while including a broader range of stocks in your portfolio.

As your investing knowledge grows, you can move to moderately concentrated copycatting, which focuses on a smaller selection of stocks, providing a more focused strategy. At the highest level, you can adopt a concentrated copycat approach, where you build your portfolio around just a few carefully chosen stocks. This strategy demands a deeper understanding of the market and the investments being made. The approach you choose will depend on your level of expertise, your risk tolerance, and your financial situation.

Position Sizing Approaches

Position sizing is a key factor in building a successful copycat portfolio, and it should align with your investing knowledge, experience, and risk tolerance. As you gain confidence and expertise, you can move from broader diversification to more concentrated portfolios that mirror the high-conviction strategies of super investors. The table below outlines how you can adjust your portfolio based on your level of mastery.

Let’s look at the position sizing approaches you can take to build your copycat portfolio:

- Very Low to Low Knowledge: Split your portfolio 50/50 between the S&P 500 and a diversified copycat portfolio of 20 stocks. This balances stability with exposure to top investors’ investments, making it ideal for beginners.

- Moderate Knowledge: Allocate 100% to a diversified copycat portfolio of 20 stocks. This approach fully replicates super investor strategies while maintaining broad diversification to reduce risk.

- High Knowledge: Transition to a moderately concentrated portfolio of 15 high-conviction stocks. This more targeted approach offers higher potential returns but requires deeper research.

- Pro Level Knowledge: Focus on a concentrated portfolio of 10 carefully selected stocks. This strategy is best for experienced investors seeking maximum returns with minimal diversification and a strong understanding of value investing.

By starting with broader diversification and gradually increasing focus as your expertise grows, you can align your portfolio strategy with your comfort level and goals.

Step by Step Guide to Build Your Copycat Portfolio

Building a copycat portfolio lets you follow the strategies of the most successful investors. By using trusted sources and a portfolio designed by experts, you can create a portfolio that reflects the best investment choices from super investors. The process below will guide you on how to build your own copycat portfolio.

However, with our model portfolio, you are better served than doing it yourself. Created by a team of experts, our model portfolio selects the best investments from dozens of top super investors, ensuring that you are copying the best investments available without spending hours researching on your own. By using our expertly curated model, you can the save time and have more confidence in your investment decisions.


Step 1: Understand the Copycat Portfolio Framework
Before building your portfolio, it’s important to know how copycat portfolios are structured.

- Diversified Portfolio (20 stocks): This is ideal for beginners or those with low investment experience.

- Moderately Concentrated Portfolio (15 stocks): For investors with some experience, focusing on a smaller group of stocks.

- Concentrated Portfolio (10 stocks): Designed for experienced investors who are confident in their choices and ready to focus on a handful of top picks.

How to Build Your Portfolio: A Practical Guide

When building your copycat portfolio, it’s important to know that you may not always find 10 to 20 stocks from top investors that fit your chosen portfolio structure, especially within a 20% price difference from when they bought the stock. This means you may need to build your portfolio gradually over time, adding stocks as you find the right opportunities from the list of super investors in this research report. By consistently tracking and adding the right positions, you can create a well-structured portfolio aligned with top investors' strategies.
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Step 2: Select Your Sources for Investor Portfolios
Use these trusted sources to find the investments of the top super investors:
1. Data Roma: https://www.dataroma.com
     - Tracks top value investors and their portfolio changes.
     - Easy-to-use, with historical data.

2. 13F Info:https://www.13f.info
     - Offers detailed 13F filings from institutional investors.
     - Perfect for tracking buying and selling trends.

3. Value Sider:https://www.valuesider.com
     - Focuses on value investors and their positions.
     - Great for identifying concentrated investments from top investors.

4. SEC Edgar: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch
     - Official government source for investor filings.
     - It requires more effort but ensures the data is reliable.

Step 3: Build Your Portfolio Based on Position Sizes
For each portfolio type, choose stocks that make up 3% or more of a super investor’s portfolio:

- Diversified Portfolio: Select 20 stocks, each from top investors with 3%+ positions.

- Moderately Concentrated Portfolio: Choose 15 stocks that represent 3%+ positions from investors who focus more on fewer stocks.

- Concentrated Portfolio: Pick 10 stocks from the highest-conviction 3%+ positions of top super investors.

Step 4: Equally Weight Your Portfolio
To keep it simple and reduce risk, allocate the same amount to each stock. For example, in a $10,000 portfolio with 10 stocks, invest $1,000 per stock. This way, each stock has the same importance in your portfolio.

Step 5: Analyze the Holding Period
Great investors often hold their stocks for 2-3 years. By holding on for the long term, you can capture higher returns without the risks of frequent trading.

Step 6: Monitor Your Portfolio Quarterly
Track the 13F filings to see what the super investors are doing. But only make changes when there are strong signals like:

- A new 3%+ first time buy

- Significant increases in existing positions

- A major sell-off (80%-100% of a position)

Step 7: Commit to Long-Term Investing
​​Building a copycat portfolio works best when you focus on the long term. Stick to your portfolio structure, hold your investments for a few years, and watch your portfolio grow. Remember, our expert-created model portfolio selects the best investments for you, so you can have confidence in your choices without having to spend time tracking every move yourself.

When to Buy & Sell Stocks

"Investors buy stocks only for one reason: to make money. Investors sell stocks for 100 reasons." Mohnish Pabrai

When to Buy Super Value Investors' Stocks
- Buy when an investor makes a first-time buy of a stock in their portfolio that is at least 3% of their total holdings, based on 13F filings.

- Buy when the stock price is less than 20% higher than the investor's estimated purchase price, which should be the average price over the past quarter.

When to Sell Super Value Investors' Stocks
- Sell when the investor sells 80% to 100% of their holding in a single transaction.

- Sell when the stock price is higher than its intrinsic value.​

Potential 25-Year Returns: 2014–2023 3%+ Copycat Portfolio vs. the S&P 500 Index

Let’s see how copycat portfolios can help grow your wealth over the long term over a 25 year period. The table below shows the difference in growth with an initial investment of $10,000. As you can see, copying super value investors can lead to much bigger returns compared to just investing in the S&P 500.

Let’s look at the position sizing approaches you can take to build your copycat portfolio.

If you follow super value investors for the next 25 years and earn the returns from the 2014 to 2023 period, compared to investing in the S&P 500 Index, here's how your $10,000 investment would grow:

- S&P 500 Index: Grows to $163,666 with an 11.83% annual return.

- S&P 500 & Diversified 19 Stock Portfolio (50% each): Grows to $200,869, a difference of $37,203, with a 12.75% annual return.

- Diversified 19 Stock Portfolio: Grows to $246,120, a difference of $82,454, with an 13.67% annual return.

- Moderately Concentrated 17 Stock Portfolio: Grows to $248,294, a difference of $84,628 with a 13.71% annual return.

- Concentrated 13 Stock Portfolio: Grows to $268,711, a difference of $105,045, with a 21.50% annual return.

- For stock portfolios in our paid Copycat Wealth Plus plans the returns are between 14.39% and 16.34% per year. Meaning your $10,000 would turn in between $288,205 and $439,771.
50% (2 out of 4) of the portfolios have annual returns above 15.50% per year.

- For stock portfolios in our paid Copycat Wealth Pro plans the returns are between 14.39% and 20.69% per year. Meaning your $10,000 would turn in between $288,205 and $1,100,987.
78.57% (11 out of 14) of the portfolios have annual returns above 16.00% per year.
42.86% (6 out of 14) of the portfolios have annual returns above 18.50% per year.

- For stock portfolios in our paid Copycat Wealth Max plans the returns are between 14.39%and 29.00% per year. Meaning your $10,000 would turn in between $44,114 and $5,817,585.
83.33% (25 out of 30) of the portfolios have annual returns above 16.00% per year.
66.66% (20 out of 30) of the portfolios have annual returns above 18.50% per year.

As you can see, the copycat portfolios significantly outperform the S&P 500, and the difference becomes even more striking over time, making a huge impact on your wealth.

Summary of Findings: What the Data Reveals About Copying Super Investors 3%+ Positions

This report highlights the factors that lead to identifying top investors and how their strategies outperform the market. By applying specific filters, investors can rely on proven strategies for market-beating returns.
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Positive Results Across 5 Criteria for Evaluating Super Value Investors

- High Returns: All portfolios, regardless of size, returned over 13.67% annually, demonstrating significant outperformance over the S&P 500’s 11.83% annual rate of return.

- Long-Term Focus: The average holding period was around 2.50 years, showing a clear long term investing strategy.

- Strong Win Rate: The win rates of these portfolios ranged from 75% to 78%, well above the 60% benchmark, which is considered the gold standard by top investors.

​- Positive Asymmetry: Portfolios demonstrated favorable positive-negative asymmetry ratios between 4.67 and 5.92, showing clear positive asymmetry with a high upside, low downside focus —a core tenet of value investing.

All Portfolios Would Have Returned Much More Money Than the S&P 500 Index

- S&P 500 Index: $10,000 invested in 2014 would have grown to $30,590.

- 19-Stock Portfolio: $10,000 invested in 2014 would have grown to $36,013.

- 17-Stock Portfolio: $10,000 invested in 2014 would have grown to $36,140.

- 13-Stock Portfolio: $10,000 invested in 2014 would have grown to $37,300.

Conclusion

Copying super value investors is a smart and reliable strategy for growing your wealth. When done correctly, it can help you outperform the market and build significant wealth over time. By identifying the right investors to copy and copying their investments, you, as an everyday investor, can join the small group of people who successfully beat the market. Most importantly, by sticking to a long-term strategy, you can steadily build wealth and achieve your financial goals without needing to be a full-time investor.

Copycat Portfolio Holdings

In the following tables, stocks highlighted in red are those that multiple investors bought at overlapping times.